Oil prices in the short term
The area of $ 48 was used as a support for two reasons. I have explained it in my previous technical analysis to short-term price of oil barrel in April (support to $ 48 and a 50 days moving average).
Today, a barrel of crude oil is below a major resistance at $ 55 and above a very solid, it 50 days moving average. The passage of the $ 55 resistance opens the door for $ 65 or even $ 75 and the rupture in the 50 moving average would be a negative signal.
Why $ 75?
It can be seen in the current trough, or a 'shoulder head shoulder "(ETE) reversed, or a figure shaped cup with handle. These two figures of technical analysis give a target of $ 75 if the resistance of $ 55 is crossed. Resistance would then neck line of these 2 figures.
$ 35 (the trough) minus $ 55 (the neck) = 20 dollars.
55 dollars add to 20 dollars gives us a target to $ 75
The 50 days moving average.
The most positive signs for the oil crossing its 50 days moving average in late February 2009. This indicates a change in trend in the price of oil barrel of. If you do need to monitor a single point that is this one. When the barrel price is above its moving average 50 days, we are in an uptrend. When it goes below it is a downward trend. The previous round of increases began in February 2007 with the passage of the moving average at $ 50. It ended in July 2008 with the crossing of this same moving average.
The two figures are imperfect. We are in a hollow area. Barrel of oil rose above its 50 days moving average. We face many bullish signals regarding the price of oil barrel. A break of this increase in the short term is possible. However as the price of a barrel of oil remains above its 50 days moving average the trend is upward.
The next signal to watch is the intersection of the 50 days moving average (blue curve) and the 200 days moving average (red curve). This will form a figure known as technical analysis: a golden cross. The last was held in May 2007, two months after that oil prices had increased above its 50 days moving average..
Dr Thomas Chaize