Oil prices in the short term (July)
This is my 4th technical analysis in the short term since March 2009 on the price of oil, I hope it will have the same success as the previous three tests. Usually the short term interests me little, I prefer the big long-term trends. But beginning in 2009 the short term and long term are given appointments in the area of $ 30 and it was difficult not to write about it.
Similar 2007 and 2009
(1) : The bottom is reached in early 2007 and late December 2008 (red line 1).
(2) : The price of a barrel of oil back test the moving average 50 days after being passed over. (green circle 2).
(3) : After crossing the moving average 50 days and 200 days which is a golden cross in the price of oil back test the moving average 50 days and 200 days.
(G) : The similarity is such that even my two reports on paying geothermics were published in very similar.
Only difference, in 2007 the oil prices rebounded in the area of $ 50 and the end of 2008 is the $ 30 area which served as support.
The current price level is very important to monitor:
- Negative, an extended passage in the moving average 200 days (+ / - 57dollars) would be a very negative signal in the medium term. This would entail moving average 50 days below the moving average 200 days (a sign of temporary resumption of the downward trend in July 2008).
- Positive, Rebound in sector 58/60 dollars, the prices back above the moving average 50 days, this indicates that the upward trend in the medium term is intact.
It is an interesting price level to buy the energy sector by keeping an eye on the moving average 200 days.
It is important for the medium-term trend that the price of a barrel of oil back above the moving average 50 days and does not pass below the moving average 200 days, otherwise it would be bearish for several months. But it goes without saying that this would not affect the long term very bullish.
The current area is attractive to make "oil purchases" with stops in major thresholds, keeping one hand on the mouse, one eye on the graph of oil to make sure everything happens as in 2007 and not forgetting monitor validation beautiful double top that built the natural gas to 3.3 $.
Dr Thomas Chaize