In the year 1000, people were afraid of the end of times, 1000 years later various analytical methods make the negative points converge. Frenzy of “End of World” or serious approach?
A first part concerns the technical analysis with the waves of Elliot, then it is a cyclic approach with Kondratieff and to end it is of the fundamental analysis with the peaks of production in the raw materials.
Three are gathered on the same graph because they have the same breaking point for year 2000.
I. Elliot Wave.
A) For Elliot the market is dividing into 8 waves.
There are 5 waves numbered from 1 to 5 during the increase, and three waves of correction during the decline named A, B and C.
This theory applies as well to very short term as to very long term.
B) What’s about it?
In very long term, it is possible to subdivide so:
1800-1835 wave (I)
1835-1860 Wave (II)
1860-1929 wave (III)
1929-1933 wave (IV)
1933-2000 Wave (V)
C) The future according to the waves of Elliot?
If we accept this discount, we are going to have in next decades a period of decline on the indications: with a big wave ( A ) of decline. A period of vague increase ( B ) and new big vague of decline ( C ).
It is a very pessimistic scenario, because the phase of decline is very long (several decades).
II. Kondratieff cycle.
A) What it is?
Kondratieff is a Russian economist who has to work in the 1920s on economic cycles. According to the cycles of Kondratieff, the economy knows phases of growth and decline in a cyclic way.
There is four periods, the spring, the summer, the autumn and the Winter. He studied this cycles from 1800 till 1920. We can so verify the validity of these cycles. It is a simple and very effective tool to foresee economic cycles.
B) What is you it according to these cycles of Kondratieff?
The current cycle begins in the 1950s, the spring and the summer passed by from 1950 till 1980, it is the period of thirty glorious. Since 1980 it is the autumn, the winter of Kondratieff would have of to begin since the 2000s. It is a cycle of about fifty years.
C) The winter of Kondratieff.
According to this approach, the winter should begin for the current period. All the attempts to avoid it are only pushing away the moment or will begin the winter. However by pushing away the winter, we risk to amplify its negative consequences. The leaders of the central banks have the same certainty of credit note to master the economic cycles that those of 1920s before the crisis of 1929 and the winter of Kondratieff.
III. The raw materials.
A) The peak of production of the oil.
According to Hubbert's curve the peak of production of the oil production should take place around 2000 (the most pessimistic version). This approach justifies the peak of production in 2000 by the fact when the peak of the oil discoveries took place in the 1970s. It is then necessary to wait 30 years to reach the peak of production.
There are numerous countries which achieved their peak of production among big producing as for example Mexico, The USA, China, England, Norway, Russia, Venezuela, Qatar, Canada, Iran and Angola. The period of the big discoveries is ended, we do not discover more than of small more expensive deposits in exploited.
To summarize, the production of oil should know a slow decline which will have enormous consequences on our savings based on the oil cheap and plentiful.
B) Other raw materials.
1st all the materials is in a similar situation. The peaks of production are only more or less taken away. But there are no researches as precise as for oil and which to allow to know when will take place the peak of production of the zinc, the nickel, the copper or the gold.
Let us take the example of the gold which has its curve of production from 1900 till 2000 to represent on the graph. The resources in subsoil are estimated between 13 and 30 years of production according to the authors. The peak of production thus seems more very far. Some authors place in 2000-2005. The symptoms are the same that for the oil, fewer discoveries and smaller sizes, we discover no more deposits of class world, deposit the most profitable were already run. For example South Africa which dominates the golden production for more than a century is crossed of 2/5 in 1980 in ¼ of the production world of gold in 1991.
The situation is the similar in the other materials 1ères, only the date of the peak of production changes.
C) Economic paradigm.
The materials first one are in twists to consider as an inexhaustible resource. But it risks to change in the decade which comes with the decline of the production of certain metals or some oil. It will transform totally the approach lived in saw materials first one. We blame China today for consuming too much of 1st material, imagine in 10 years.
Here are gathered in the same graph three different approaches as the waves of Elliot, the cycles of Kondratieff and the peak of production in raw materials. These three approaches indicate a decline from 2000, decline of the indications with Elliot, period of crisis with Kondratieff and decline of the production of raw materials (« peak oil » is the most known). But there are the other indicators which go to the same direction as I spread not to weigh down the graph (problem of the us$ or h&s on the world indexes for example). It make many factors which converges in the same direction. I make for you here of my questioning, I hope to make a mistake and what this is my worst analysis.
To end here is a proverb « a pessimist is an optimist who understood ».
Dr Thomas Chaize